Gwadar is viewed as a critical pearl in China's maritime strategy as it would give a permanent logistical footprint near an important choke point - the Strait of Hormuz and the oil rich Persian Gulf, explains Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
'The Chinese military cannot advance much in Ladakh, even if they want to.' 'Similarly, in Arunachal Pradesh, they can rename a village or two, intrude here or there, but cannot do much more realistically.'
Beijing clearly intends to extend the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor to Bangladesh as part of its larger Maritime Belt and Road Initiative to boost its Indian Ocean presence.
A new study reveals that despite China's significant control over global rare earth mining and processing, its dominance has a critical weakness: the US and Japan hold the majority of core patents for advanced rare earth functional material technologies. This technological gap means China lags in higher-value applications, impacting its strategic advantage in the industry.
To get its act going in Myanmar, India would need very dynamic diplomacy and not the lazy all-eggs-in-one-basket approach, points out Subir Bhaumik.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
A lesson for India is to clearly define objectives beforehand, so that the adversary or other parties do not attempt to mitigate them midway.
The boundary mess between India and Nepal needs a solution in a manner as mentioned by Nepal's Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal: 'On evidence not emotions', counsels Lieutenant General Shakti Gurung (retd).
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Donald Trump issued a fresh warning to Iran as negotiations remained deadlocked over uranium stockpiles, sanctions relief and war compensation. The US President's sharp remarks came just hours after Iranian media revealed Washington's core conditions for resuming negotiations.
Companies are already diversifying sourcing, raising prices, and reworking operating models as the disruption drags on.
There are enough people at the top decision-making level in Tehran who are still willing to negotiate, provided Trump can create the right setting for the negotiation to acquire a dynamic of its own, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
A trade deal makes sense only if it is fair and reciprocal. If the cost is strategic dependence or loss of policy space, waiting is the wiser option, asserts Ajay Srivastava.
...is a way out, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War. What the indefinite extension produces is a prolonged condition of not-war-not-peace, in which oil markets cannot stabilise, Asian refineries cannot plan, European governments cannot stop subsidising consumption they cannot afford, and the next flashpoint -- a seized tanker, a miscalculated drone strike, a Truth Social post that claims too much -- is one news cycle away.
The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
'It is typical of China's strategic deception of making virtue out of necessity,' observes Rup Narayan Das.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
'Pakistan's role in Bangladesh will always be negative, since it's a one-point agenda is hostility against India.'
The US government, under President Trump, justifies the intervention as a security necessity rather than a resource grab. The primary official reasons include: narco-terrorism charges, national security and migration crisis.
The 17 rare earth elements that are at the centre of the current crisis are critical components of everyday products -- from cars to jet engines to electronics like smartphones and flat-screen TVs.
'Saudi-Pak defence pact is to anchor the defence and security of Saudi Arabia and not Pakistan, per se, with Islamabad being the junior partner.'
Brave statements such as we will continue to be the fastest growing large country are of no consolation, because the direction of trade also determines the flow of investment, points out M Govinda Rao.
China's official media on Sunday criticised United States bomb attacks on Iranian nuclear sites as a further step toward the abyss, while experts in Beijing said the American bunker-buster bombs used in strikes may not be enough to destroy Iran's nuclear plants hidden deep underground.
The Chinese see no need to fight directly. They have an able and willing proxy in Pakistan, points out Shekhar Gupta.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
'They are totally disconnected with farm activities which their families have been involved in for years.'
'Trump has personally weighed in to overcome doubts and reservations about Pakistan among his top advisors.'
A joint venture agreement between GAIL (India) Limited and China Gas Holdings Limited to foray into natural gas
China's new naval strategy of 'far sea defence' is aimed at giving Beijing the ability to project its power in key oceanic areas, including and most significantly the Indian Ocean. China has fired the first salvo. Others will have to react seriously if they want to retain their role in the region, says Harsh V Pant.
'If you behave like a nail, the adversary will behave like a hammer.'
'Unfortunately, India and Pakistan could learn a 'lesson' from this conflict that will make them more likely to use these weapons against each other in the future.' 'Rounds of missile and drone attacks could be more routine features of their hostility, just like artillery fire has become a familiar fact of life along the Line of Control.'
